A mere eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
